WHEELING, W.Va. (WTRF) – The age old question: “What’s the weather going to be this Winter?” has been asked and the StormTracker7 Weather Team has combined their brains and develop their outlook for the Winter of 2023/2024.
Understanding last year’s “Winter”
I am sure everyone can remember two key points from last year’s winter: No real snow and the Arctic Air around Christmas.
That pretty much summed up all things for last year!
At the Wheeling Ohio County Airport, we experienced the warmest Winter (December, January, and February) on record!
The only cold spell we experienced was the weekend through Christmas were temperatures dipped below zero degrees.
The changing tides
The last three Winters, you have probably heard meteorologists use the term La Nina. This was one of a handful of times when we had three straight years within a La Nina pattern.
For reference La Nina is talking about the transport of cooler ocean waters towards the equator which impacts the upper air pattern.
This Winter, we undergo a change to an El Nino. Which is a transport of warmer ocean waters towards the equator.
As this change in ocean surface temperature occurs, this provides a more “wavy pattern” to the upper air flow, which in turn creates more boom or bust type weather systems that will impact The Ohio River Valley.
What else was used?
There are many factors that were utilized when creating the overall winter outlook.
A building block to the outlook is understanding how El Nino will impact the Ohio Valley and looking into past Winters when El Nino was present.
Sunspot data, global weather models, and other teleconnections (changes in atmospheric air flow over continents) were utilized to build the StormTracker7 Winter Outlook.
The Overall Outlook
The Winter Outlook for this year will be much different than the last three Winters due to variables stated above. Here is how each month will shake out.
Through all months there will be peaks and valleys with stretches of time where
December
The overall outlook for the early stages of Winter will trend average when it comes to amount of snowfall received and overall temperature pattern.
Yes there will be some warmer days along with cooler air at times, but it will all balance out overall.
Precipitation as a whole will trend slightly above average.
January
A similar swing of events is the trend as we head into the beginning of the new year.
The Ohio Valley will trend average when it comes to amount of snowfall received and overall temperature pattern.
Above average precipitation is also the forecast.
February
As for the final stages of Meteorological Winter, we start to see warmer air return and drier conditions.
Temperatures will lean above average while precipitation and snowfall will be below average.
The real question, how much snow overall?
We did not forget the most important part of a winter outlook: snow amounts!
For context, Chief Meteorologist Dr. Dave Walker started measuring and recording snow totals outside the 7News studio during the Winter of 2005/2006. Since then, Zach Petey and supporting meteorologists have diligently kept his line of work going.
Over the last 18 years, the StormTracker7 Weather Team has measured roughly 33″ of snow on average, with last winter only measuring an inch.
For the Winter of 2023/2024, we can expect roughly 25″ – 35″ of snowfall for the Ohio River Valley with locally higher amount on the hilltops and higher terrained regions.
For updates regarding school closings and delays, winter weather forecasts, and standard day to day weather events, you can always trust The StormTracker7 Weather Team.
