While much of the attention has been focused on whether long-time leader Pierre Ng Pang-chi can find the kick required to complete a near wire-to-wire domination in the trainers’ premiership, what is unfolding at the bottom of the table is of even greater significance.
Three trainers have some serious work to do to avoid a strike for failing to meet the Jockey Club’s trainers’ benchmark and time is ticking with 64 of the season’s 88 meetings in the bag.
Cody Mo Wai-kit is also at risk of not reaching the 16 winners, including only two in Class Five, that single-site handlers require to meet the benchmark, but he gets a free pass by virtue of being in his first season.
After strikes in 2020-21 and 2021-22, Michael Chang Chun-wai did not a scrap more than necessary to avoid a third black mark – and the likely end of his career – last season, landing his 16th and final eligible winner on July 3 to bank his licence for this campaign.
The laid-back 62-year-old again finds himself in a race against time, needing six winners from the final 24 meetings, but he has used only one of his Class Five quota.
A double on April 3 boosted Chang’s chances of another season and, with in-form gallopers Lady’s Choice, Forever Folks and Bear Slam stepping out at Sha Tin on Saturday, the veteran looks capable of again doing enough to keep the lights on.
It’s difficult to say the same for Me Tsui Yu-sak, whose career has hit the skids in the past three seasons and could be entering its final months.
A regular in the middle rungs of the premiership with consistent 30-plus hauls for much of his career, Tsui has been on the slide since training 37 winners in 2020-21.
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Tsui was unlucky to get a strike when landing 21 winners as a dual-site trainer in 2021-22, with six of his victories coming in Class Five in the first season that the Jockey Club tightened expectations to include restrictions on cellar-grade successes.
Tsui, who gave up his Conghua stable in 2023, could only manage 13 victories last campaign and is now staring down the barrel of a third strike in as many seasons and the prospect of having to convince officials he should be allowed to train on.
While the win of Super Axiom at Happy Valley on Wednesday night moved Tsui to nine wins for the campaign, it was his fifth win of the term in Class Five, meaning he only has six eligible winners to his name and is facing the mightiest of uphill battles to save his career.
Jimmy Ting Koon-ho is in an even more dire situation than Tsui from a numbers perspective, but the 51-year-old has the luxury of boasting a clean record on the strike front.
There’s still plenty of reason for Ting to be alarmed, though, with the sixth-season trainer’s output falling off a cliff this campaign.
After hauls of 38, 35, 31, 30 and 26 to begin his career, Ting sits on only six victories and must now extract another 10 eligible wins out of a stable that has been reduced to just 27 horses.
Ting can perhaps take inspiration from Ricky Yiu Poon-fai, who struck out with only 10 winners back in 2005-06 before rebuilding his stable and reeling off a number of successful seasons, including his 2019-20 premiership-winning campaign.
Ting did have a double at Sha Tin last weekend to give the stable some momentum, but with only two runners this weekend and three entries for Happy Valley next Wednesday, it’s near impossible to picture the handler reeling off the regular successes he’ll need to meet requirements.
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