(KXAN/NEXSTAR) — It’s almost here, perhaps the most important weather forecast for the millions of people planning to be in the path of the 2024 total solar eclipse on April 8.
Eclipse glasses have been purchased, viewing locations planned, and now there’s just one thing left to do – pray for clear skies.
Depending on where you are in the path of totality, the 115-mile-wide strip across the United States that will see maximum coverage, your chances of a cloudless Great American Eclipse vary.
In the U.S., totality will reach Texas first, before moving through Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Slivers of both Tennessee and Michigan also fall into the path of totality.
Historically-speaking, the further south you are, the better chance you have of a clear day on April 8, but early spring weather patterns can be unpredictable – an unfortunate reality for parts of Texas and Oklahoma which may see some wet weather.
Keep in mind that forecasts can shift during the week, but this is the current forecast for several regions in the path of totality:
Central Texas
With a little more than a week until the celestial event, the forecast for the eclipse is looking mostly cloudy and potentially wet in and around the Austin area.
As things stand, Nexstar’s KXAN forecasts a mostly cloudy sky and a 30% chance for rain on Monday, April 8 throughout the 15 Central Texas counties that we cover.
With any luck, we could still get some breaks of sun during the afternoon and the potential for rain to hold off until later.
Central New York
If the Central New York area enjoys a clear view of the total solar eclipse, it will have been a near miss.
Several inches of snow are expected this week with some showers expected on Saturday, according to Nexstar’s WSYR.
While things could change over the next few days, the current forecast shows some signs of promise Sunday into Monday, however.
“We’re still looking pretty good, 60s with hopefully cooperating cloud cover for the eclipse,” said WSYR meteorologist Kate Thornton.
Northeast Ohio
Historically, April 8 has not been kind to the Northeast Ohio region when it comes to clear skies with totally sunny days in just two of the last 10 years, according to Nexstar’s WJW.
If you want to see how cloudy things have been historically on April 8 in your area, check out this map from NOAA and the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.
As for April 8, 2024, the current forecast for Northeast Ohio calls for temperatures to be in the upper 50s with partially sunny skies.
“As it stands now, clouds look to increase throughout the day. How thick will these clouds be is the big question,” WJW meteorologist Scott Sabol said. “That said, viewing conditions should still be pretty decent.”
Central Oklahoma
The forecast for Oklahoma City and surrounding counties is still uncertain, but the latest predictions from Nexstar’s KFOR aren’t great for eclipse viewers.
The long range forecast shows the “potential for widespread clouds as well as showers and T-storms across portions of the southern plains, including Southeast Oklahoma.”
Despite the grim forecast, things could change over the coming week as we get a more accurate look at the weather for the total solar eclipse.
Northeastern Indiana
Northeastern Indiana isn’t completely in the clear for April 8, with cloudy skies during the morning in the forecast, according to Nexstar’s WANE.
The good news is that early predictions show a partial; clearing during the afternoon, and no rain in the area .
Clouds are expected to decrease as the eclipse progresses from partial, starting at 1:53 p.m. local time, to totality at 3:02 p.m.
Who will have the best chance of clear skies?
While far from settled, next week appears to be defying historic trends, with some southern viewing points fairing worse than their northeastern counterparts.
Meteorologist Matt Lanza writes in The Eyewall blog that early models show high rain probabilities in Texas extending up through Arkansas and Missouri.
Above the Mississippi Valley, the probability of precipitation falls off.
As for the best place to watch the total solar eclipse, Lanza wrote on Sunday that he has more confidence about Canada and the Great Lakes.
“If I’m picking a place right now, it’s probably like Watertown, NY or something,” Lanza wrote. “But this is a moving target, so watch for changes through the week”
Cloud cover
Remember, it can be cloudy all day, but if the clouds break during totality, then you’re in good shape. The opposite is also true. One, large, poorly positioned cloud during a mostly sunny day can ruin totality.
Meteorologists remind viewers that they are forecasting for a less than five-minute period of time that’s several days away.
If April 8 was mostly sunny, but one cloud covered the sun for those important few minutes, the solar eclipse would be considered “ruined” for many who wanted to view it unobstructed, regardless of what the weather was like for the whole day. With so little room for error, meteorologists are cautious when it comes to precise details and timing, especially this far out.
“Weather forecasting has improved by leaps and bounds, but forecasting a five-minute window with specifics and 100% accuracy is not possible, especially several days out,” KXAN meteorologists Kristen Currie and Nick Bannin wrote in their eclipse forecast. “If there is uncertainty or important trends, we will relay that, but meteorology is an imperfect science that, while improving, is not as accurate as we all want it to be.”
The weather can and will change, so eclipse viewers are encouraged not to change plans several days out, but continue checking their local forecast to determine their best chances for being in the right spot to get the best view on April 8.
