Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with the Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3).
What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Seth Walder, Tyler Fulghum and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Bengals at Jaguars (-9.5, 39.5). The Jaguars have rattled off wins in seven of the past eight games. How are you betting this one?
Schatz: Despite the loss of Joe Burrow for the Bengals, the bigger gap in this game might be on defense. The Bengals are just 26th in defensive DVOA, including 29th against the run. The Jaguars are a surprising fifth in defense this year and an even more surprising No. 1 in DVOA against the run. Add that to the gap between Trevor Lawrence and Jake Browning, and I’m comfortable going with Jaguars -9.5.
Fulghum: Jaguars 1H -5.5 | Jaguars -9.5 | UNDER 39.5. I like this spot for the Jaguars. They’ve properly reset after coming out of their bye and getting smoked by San Francisco in Week 10. They smashed the Titans in Week 11 and went on the road to Houston for a huge divisional win in Week 12. Meanwhile, the Bengals have lost two games in that span … and Burrow. Advantage, Jags.
Based on what you saw out of Bengals fill-in QB Jake Browning in his first start last week in a loss to Pittsburgh, how does that impact your thinking about betting this game?
Schatz: Browning wasn’t so bad in his first start, especially if you consider the quality of the defense he was playing against. But beware overrating backup quarterbacks based on a single good game, not just because of the small sample but also because opponents do not yet have film on that quarterback’s tendencies. So when I bet this game, I’m thinking that the Bengals’ offense is far behind what it would be with a healthy Joe Burrow. And that has me leaning toward the Jaguars.
Fulghum: This is a tough assignment for Browning. He looked anything but inspiring in last week’s home loss to the Steelers in which the Bengals’ offense mustered just 10 points, thanks to some extraordinary good luck on tipped passes that Ja’Marr Chase was still able to catch. The Jacksonville defense has been very good this season, especially against the run and on third downs. Browning at QB only intensifies my conviction on the Jags.
The Jaguars enter the game 8-3. Which, if any, of the following exact win total bets are you most apt to bet? Fourteen wins (+1000), 13 wins (+300), 12 wins (+185), 11 wins (+260), 10 wins (+650) or 9 wins (+2000).
Walder: This is the kind of question for which I’d want to put my faith solely in projections. And according to ours, this is a stay-away. Our ESPN Analytics model is basically on market here, but if you have to bet one, we show the tiniest bit of value on 11 wins (+260), which we would price at +258.
Fulghum: I trust Walder and his math here, but looking strictly at the schedule, it appears the Jags are going to be favored in five of their last six games, Monday included. If you’re a Jags fan, why not fire on 13 wins (+300).
What’s your favorite prop bet for Monday’s contest?
Schatz: Evan Engram OVER 41.5 receiving yards. Cincinnati ranks 30th in DVOA against tight ends, and five different tight ends have gained at least 70 yards in a game against the Bengals. Engram has at least 40 receiving yards in eight of 11 games so far this season.
Walder: Travon Walker OVER 0.5 sacks (+145). We have a very limited sample of Browning, but what we have seen should be enticing to opposing pass-rushers: a 13% sack rate. Plus, Walker will have the benefit of going against Bengals right tackle Jonah Williams, who ranked 55th out of 70 tackles in pass block win rate this season entering Sunday. I make the over -104.
Fulghum: Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 66.5 rush yds (-120) | Trevor Lawrence UNDER 32.5 pass attempts (-130). As a 9.5-point home favorite against an overmatched opponent, expect a game script that allows Jacksonville to run the football often and throw the football sporadically with a large lead. It’s hard for me to imagine the Bengals’ offense with Browning pushing Trevor Lawrence to drop back a lot.
Moody: Calvin Ridley over 57.5 receiving yards. Ridley has surpassed 57.5 receiving yards in three of his past four games, while averaging 7.0 targets per game. The return of Zay Jones back has also helped Ridley since opposing defenses can no longer double cover him. The Bengals defense has given up the sixth most passing yards per game to opponents, giving Ridley an opportunity to shine in primetime.
Is there anything else you’re playing Monday?
Walder: Tyson Campbell OVER 0.5 interceptions (+1000). As a heavy favorite going against an anonymous backup, there’s a good chance there will be a pick or two available for the Jaguars’ defense (Browning is -170 to throw at least one interception and +275 to throw at least two). Fellow Jaguars corner Darious Williams is +390, but Campbell is available at +1000, a value according to my model that prices this prop at +762.
Moody: Joe Mixon under 69.5 total rushing + receiving yards. The Bengals are 10-point underdogs heading into Monday night, statistical evidence of how Jake Browning impacts Cincinnati’s offense. Mixon faces a formidable Jaguars defense that ranks sixth in run stop win rate and allows the fewest rushing yards per game.
