As a hurricane tracks toward California, Kevin Andrew couldn’t help but have two things on his mind: grapes and tomatoes.
In his 45 years of ag experience, Andrews, the senior vice president at the Bakersfield-based Illume Agriculture, said in an email Thursday that he’s never seen this situation arise. And he’s worried.
The San Joaquin Valley should expect substantial rain early next week as Hurricane Hilary, which developed into a Category 2 storm Thursday morning, may reach Kern County by Monday, bringing several inches of rain and possible flooding, especially at higher elevations. The storm and its projected precipitation come at an almost never experienced time of year, to a region where even a shift in temperature can delay harvest.
“I told our investors this morning it’s like standing on the side of the road watching your dog about to be hit by a car and there’s nothing you can do,” Andrew wrote.
Overcast and light rain will be noticed first in Kern’s desert and mountain regions late Saturday night before extending to the rest of the county early Sunday morning. By Monday night, Kern’s desert and mountain regions to the east and southeast could see up to five inches of rain, 50 mph winds and potential mudslides, especially along Interstate 5 and Highway 58.
Projections are incrementally lighter elsewhere: up to two inches of rain and 30 mph winds in metropolitan Bakersfield, and maybe an inch in northwest Kern communities such as Delano and McFarland.
“Even though the Southern California mountains and the Kern County mountains are creating somewhat of a block, we’re going to see significant rain in Kern County,” said Carlos Molina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.
In a Twitter post Thursday, the weather station warned that Southern and Central California, up to just north of Fresno, have a 15% chance of flash flooding through Tuesday, with considerably higher rates east of San Diego.
“Even though it’s summertime, I’d advise to turn around. Don’t drown because there’s going to be a lot of water out there,” Molina said.
It comes as California grapes, like many other crops, are in the midst of their August harvest, a pivotal point in the state’s multibillion-dollar industry that has long relied on one consistency: no rain.
“We don’t get August rains,” Andrews wrote, adding that “If we get an inch or more of rain it’s a worst-case scenario for the industry.”
August rain is extremely rare in Bakersfield. The last two times Bakersfield received an inch of rain in the month was in 1977 and then in 1983, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
According to David Magaña, a senior analyst for RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, the California table grape season is ramping up and rain could have a serious impact on its quality. The storm also comes right as the almond harvest begins and a couple of weeks before harvest of pistachios.
“This will be terrible not only for grapes but every other crop — tomatoes, melons, almonds, etc.,” Andrew wrote, adding grapes and tomatoes will likely be most impacted. “I told people if they believe in the power of prayer, pray it shifts east of the Sierras.”
The unexpected rain poses several dangers to crops, like staining pistachio shells, spurring mold spores in the soil and downgrading the overall quality of the crops.
That said, uncertainties remain over the storm’s intensity and its expected trajectory through California. Its landfall in Southern California would be the first since 1939, according to the National Weather Service.
In contrast, Taylor Hillman, a senior specialist with the Almond Board of California’s industry communications, said temperatures expected after the storm should balance things out.
“And not a ton of almonds are on the ground drying right now,” Hillman wrote, comparing the situation to the “salt and pepper” almonds seen a couple of years ago, when cool temperatures that followed rain caused almonds on the ground to develop mold.
“Also, a rain and then dry out could actually help some of the later varieties split out,” Hillman wrote. “It all depends on how much rain, and what the weather is like after the rain event.”
After starting Wednesday as a tropical storm several hundred miles off the Mexican coast, Hurricane Hilary was upgraded Thursday morning to a Category 2 hurricane with winds sustained at 105 mph, with higher gusts. By Thursday evening, forecasters with The National Weather Service expected the storm to reach Category 4 status.
But due to colder California water — hurricanes need warm water to survive — that status was expected to be short-lived.
“But by the time it reaches San Diego, it will slowly start to die,” Molina said. “So, while we expect intensification, that intensification will only be over the ocean.”
Kern River Watermaster Mark Mulkay said that water outflows from Isabella Dam into the Kern River may be increased this weekend in anticipation of the storm, but that he would know more by Saturday.
By this point, snow along the Sierra Nevada’s Kern River basin is nearly gone, Mulkay said, so concerns aren’t as high as they were in March, when rain storms combined with record snowpack raised flooding concerns.
“We think we’ve got capacity to manage it and make it work, it just means there’ll be water in the (Kern) river a little bit longer this fall,” Mulkay said.
Managing and business editor John Cox contributed to this report.
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