Bond markets additionally occur to be the fountain of cash provide for different asset courses like commodities, foreign exchange and equities. As any highschool scholar of economics will inform us, cash is the lifeblood of commerce. Bond markets, being the supply of cash, decide tendencies in different markets.
Financial markets witnessed a tectonic shift publish 9/11. Central banks the world over found they might ‘stimulate’ sagging economies by slicing rates of interest. Lower rates of interest meant decrease value of capital and decrease prices of doing enterprise. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 made this recreation plan a ‘must do’ technique for central bankers.
It appeared to work for a few years. So a lot in order that over $15 trillion value of bonds are at this time fetching unfavourable yields. This means you have got to pay curiosity to the bond issuer to purchase their bonds! This is due to the flight to security by ultra-high networth investors and establishments, which positioned an emphasis on capital safety somewhat than return on funding.
The Covid-19 pandemic triggered a disruptive change. We noticed retail merchants set off a brief squeeze on shares like Gamestop. Robinhood merchants introduced down many a hedge fund by sheer power of their cumulative trades.
Bond markets have been the final man standing.
These disruptive trades at the moment are reaching bond markets. Traders are hammering (brief promoting) sovereign bonds and inflicting spikes in bond yields. Remember bond yields and bond costs are inversely correlated. The standoff between bond merchants and bond issuers (primarily governments) is that of demand and provide. Governments the world over need to borrow massive sums of cash from the bond markets and need rates of interest to keep decrease in order to decrease their very own borrowing prices. Bond investors and merchants are usually not pleased with that. They are demanding increased rates of interest by promoting bonds in protest.
In the Indian context, the 10-year benchmark sovereign yield was at 5.90 – 5.95 per cent barely a month in the past. It has crossed 6.30 per cent now. Rising yields are threatening to set off a spike in rates of interest and that will even elevate the price of doing enterprise (together with investing and buying and selling).
Equity markets being superior discounting mechanisms are witnessing nervousness out there. Historically, we’ve seen bond yields spike previous the 8 per cent mark within the final years of the UPA-II regime. Stock costs have been weak even then. The affect is especially felt on banking shares and by default within the Bank Nifty, as banks occur to be the largest investors in these bonds. A selloff in bond costs triggers mark-to-market losses within the banks’ bond portfolios.
Veteran merchants and institutional gamers who keep in mind classes from historical past are taking part in cautious and that’s displaying within the behaviour of the banking shares. Investors would do properly to be aware that each one asset courses have a pull-push affect on one another. Even if one is pure equity investor/dealer, she should monitor bonds and commodities markets for pattern dedication.
(Vijay L Bhambwani is Head of Research for Behavioural Technical Analysis at Equitymaster. Views are his personal)