‘Top Gun 2’ Tops $800 Million, ‘Jurassic World 3’ Tops $500 Million

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The box office gods were nice enough to avoid hitting too many major milestones yesterday since I was flying to Ohio for a week with the family. But today we have the two big movies in release passing a few relative milestones. Anyway, Colin Trevorrow’s Jurassic World Dominion earned another $8.65 million on Thursday to bring its domestic cume to $191.136 million in seven days. The Universal tentpole will zoom past $200 million domestic tomorrow, having long since passed Jurassic Park III ($181 million in 2001/$292 million adjusted). It’ll pass The Lost World ($229 million in 1997 but $456 million adjusted) over the weekend to become the fourth-biggest Jurassic Park/Jurassic World movie in raw unadjusted domestic earnings.

Universal has helpfully confirmed that the $185 million dino sequel has passed $300 million overseas and $500 million worldwide, passing Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($505 million) on the list of Covid-era grossers. It should end the weekend past $600 million and the (unadjusted) $619 million cume of The Lost World. That will include around $86 million from China after ten days, for what still looks like an over/under $120 million total. That’s below the $227 million and $267 million grosses of Jurassic World and Fallen Kingdom, which is more about China’s ability to pull big grosses for any Hollywood tentpole. If James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water doesn’t significantly break out in China in December…

If Jurassic World 3 (which audiences generally have enjoyed more than critics) earns $55 million to push its ten-day total to $247 million and maintains that 37/63 split, its global cume will be over/under $666 million by Sunday night. I still think it ends up above $1 billion, although (like Sam Raimi’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness) a lack of big bucks in China, Russia and Ukraine may keep it below $999.999 million. That’s not the bar for success, not for Jurassic World 3 and not for Doctor Strange 2. The MCU sequel crossed $400 million domestic on Wednesday as it sits with around $935 million global. That’s spectacular for a Doctor Strange sequel.

Despite strong reviews and solid buzz, Captain America: Civil War earned $409 million domestic and $1.15 billion worldwide from a $179 million domestic debut. It was the most frontloaded MCU movie ever. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness now is. It’s partially because the $187 million opening weekend was about folks who wanted an MCU event film, and the rest was just folks who were satisfied with a Doctor Strange-centric “monster of the week” episode. Likewise, some of the opening weekend audience for Captain America: Civil War wanted Avengers 2.5, while the rest were happy with Captain America 3. After years of Covid-caused downturn, Multiverse of Madness is a reaffirmation of Marvel’s global theatrical might.

Top Gun: Maverick earned $6.2 million (-32% from last Thursday and –6% from yesterday) on its 21st day of domestic release. Paramount and Skydance’s $170 million legacy sequel has now earned $422.165 million domestic. It will, over this weekend, pass the inflation-adjusted gross of Top Gun ($180 million mostly in 1986/$440 million adjusted) to become Tom Cruise’s biggest “tickets sold” grosser ever. It has passed the $792 million global gross of Mission: Impossible – Fallout to become Cruise’s biggest global earner. If its domestic/overseas split remains as it was on Sunday, Top Gun: Maverick has now passed $800 million worldwide. It’ll also top China’s Hi, Mom ($835 million) this weekend to be the fourth biggest Covid-era grosser.

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