Tesla is showing some strong resilience in California’s crashing car market and is helping boost EV market share to a new record.
With the slowdown that came with the pandemic and the more recent supply chain issues, the auto industry has yet to go back to pre-2020 levels of deliveries.
California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its latest report based on new car registrations in the state and confirmed that the market is down 16% year-to-date as of September.
But there are some silver linings in the results.
The biggest one is that the EV market share in California is at a new high of 16%, and it is gaining momentum:
It looks like without electric vehicles, California’s auto market would be crashing even more.
Tesla vehicles still represent most electric vehicles delivered in the state and brand registration stats highlight just how important the Tesla brand has become in California.
So far in 2022, Tesla is one of only two car brands, along with Genesis, to be growing in the state:
This decline from other brands has enabled Tesla to gain a 10% overall market share in the state with only four models available. It is even catching up to Toyota.
Tesla now has the top-selling passenger car, Model 3, and the top-selling overall vehicle in the state, including light trucks, Model Y:
As you can see in the chart above, Tesla Model 3 is even beating the Toyota Camry in sales – a feat it first achieved earlier this year.
Other electric vehicles are also contributing to the growing EV market share in California, like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, but the CNCDA doesn’t break down the sales of Mustangs per model.
EV market shares in California already jumped from under 14% to 16% in 2022, but I think it could end the year near 20% with a strong Q4.
Tesla is likely going to increase deliveries thanks to the production ramp at Gigafactory Texas.
But next year is when things could truly go wild for EVs, and I could see market shares doubling to 40%.
The renewed federal incentive is going to help, but the biggest thing is going to be higher volumes of vehicles like the F150 Lightning and new model launches like the Equinox EV, Silverado EV, and many more.
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