RIL Q1: RIL Q1 preview: Profit may grow 50%; Jio Arpu may see mild rise

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NEW DELHI: Oil-to-telecom major is likely to report 30-50 per cent year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit for the June quarter on a 60-100 per cent jump in sales. Ebitda margin is seen contracting up to 260 basis points on a yearly basis. Sequentially, the performance may be weak due to lockdowns.

Going by analyst estimates, the telecom division is expected to see 55-85 lakh new additions to the subscriber base, which could be lower than the average of 97 lakh additions seen in the last four quarters. Average revenue per user (Arpu) is likely to rise but only marginally on a sequential basis.

The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division is seen reporting a rise in Ebitda per tonne. Retail Ebitda is seen falling sharply QoQ due to lockdown-related restrictions.

Emkay Global expects RIL to report an adjusted consolidated PAT of Rs 10,855 crore, up 31.3 per cent YoY over last year’s Rs 8,267 crore (excluding one-time gain of Rs 4,966 crore in the base quarter). Revenues are seen climbing 60.60 per cent YoY to Rs 1,41,752 crore from Rs 88,253 crore in the year-ago quarter. Ebitda margin is seen contracting 257 basis points to about 17 per cent, which would be about 94 basis points up sequentially.

The brokerage sees higher O2C margins, though offset by lower volumes. It sees retail Ebitda falling while Jio’s average revenue per user (Arpu) remaining largely flat sequentially. RJio’s revenue, it said, would rise 1.4 per cent sequentially.

HDFC Institutional Equities pegged the company’s O2C Ebitda per tonne (crude processed) growing at 14 per cent sequentially, owing to improvement in gasoil cracks by 9 per cent and flat petchem margins.

“However, refining throughput would decline by 15 per cent sequentially with an emergency shutdown in the SEZ refinery in June. We expect retail Ebitda to decrease 59 per cent sequentially to Rs 1,470 crore. We have estimated 85 lakh subscriber addition for RJio and Arpu of Rs 140, up 1.2 per cent, sequentially,” it said.

This brokerage sees a 49.2 per cent YoY jump in June quarter profit at about Rs 12,600 crore on a 54.3 per cent rise in sales at Rs 1,36,200 crore. Ebitda margin is seen at 16.4 per cent.

JM Financial expects O2C Ebitda to rise by a modest 3.9 per cent growth sequentially due to a slight recovery in petchem margins, which it said would be partly offset by weak domestic demand.

“Refining margin is likely to continue to be subdued, though may improve marginally QoQ to $6.8 a barrel. Digital Ebitda is likely to rise 2 per cent QoQ to Rs 9,100 crore with net subscriber addition likely at 80 lakh QoQ. Arpu is expected to rise to Rs 139 from Rs 138 in the March quarter due to a delay in recharges because of the lockdown. Retail Ebitda likely to drop by a sharp 45 per cent QoQ to Rs 2,000 crore due to lockdown curbs,” it said.

This brokerage sees an 80 per cent YoY jump in sales. Including one-time gain in the base quarter, the brokerage estimates consolidated profit for June quarter at Rs 13,027 crore, down 1.6 per cent YoY.

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