Liz Truss has 90% chance of becoming UK’s next prime minister


UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is rated a 90% shot to succeed Boris Johnson as head of the UK Conservative Party and Prime Minister as the leadership race enters its final weeks, according to betting exchange firm Smarkets.

Rishi Sunak and Truss are competing in a six-week tour of hustings around the UK for the votes of some 175 000 Tory party members. Smarkets says Sunak’s chances of becoming prime minister have plummeted to 10%. The results will be announced on Sept. 5.

“When the race first narrowed down to the final two, Truss was rated a 60-40 favourite to win, but the odds have continued to move in her favour,” said Matthew Shaddick, head of political markets at Smarkets. “Many were forecasting that Rishi Sunak would be a better campaigner, but Truss’s debate performances have beaten expectations.”

Truss, who has vowed to cut taxes as soon as she takes office, was seen as the strongest performer in a BBC television debate earlier this week, according to a poll of 507 Tory party members.

Truss is odds-on with other sites too — she’s 1/8 at Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill, according to Oddschecker.  Sunak, whose resignation helped trigger the prime minister’s downfall earlier this month, is lagging way behind Truss at 6/1 with Sky.

Odds from betting on politics should be taken with a pinch of salt. They tend to reflect the views of a modest number of everyday citizens, with low levels of liquidity compared to other markets. Nonetheless, they give clues as to the direction of travel during a rapidly changing contest.

© 2022 Bloomberg



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