In the lead up to the Bathurst 1000 weekend, Mark Skaife told me he believed the quantum of change brought about by the introduction of the Gen3 car was the biggest overhaul the sport had seen in 30 years.
Not since the introduction of the 5-litre formula for the 1993 season – that would then evolve into V8 Supercars – following the end of the Group A era have teams had so many unknowns heading into the sport’s showcase event.
The cars are wider, there’s far less downforce, the engines are different. The cars are vastly different to the ones Shane van Gisbergen and Garth Tander drove to victory here last year.
And the category has also brought to Bathurst its softest ever tyre compound, which makes up for in mechanical grip some of the aerodynamic grip lost by the downforce reduction.
But it wears out much quicker than the harder tyre, and nobody knows if it will survive a whole tyre stint.
Teams have now had six hours of practice on the Mount Panorama circuit ahead of today’s race, and the form guide shows Brodie Kostecki and David Russell in the No.99 Erebus Camaro are the team to beat in a straight fight.
But Bathurst is rarely a straight fight.
The potential for a late-race safety car is always big, but it’s even bigger this year. Given the expectation for a dry race, the use of the softer tyres will mean the marble build-up off the racing line late in the race is tipped to be horrific.
One small error could lead to a driver’s rapid familiarisation with a concrete wall.
While everyone will have conducted ‘race runs’ in practice – basically extended stints of 10 or 15 laps during practice – to get a read on tyre wear, nobody has done one from a full tank of fuel down to empty.
With the harder tyres, fuel used to run out well before tyre wear rendered them uncompetitive. But this year, nobody knows.
It means the strategy race will be wide open. Do you start with your co-driver, as has been the preferred method for much of the past decade?
If you’re at the back, you might start your main driver to see if they can carve through the field. Or, maybe you might take an early pitstop to get yourself out of traffic and lessen the risk of being caught up in someone else’s dramas.
Cameron Waters suggested the Mustangs might need to keep themselves in traffic to pick up a slipstream up Mountain and down Conrod Straights.
Jamie Whincup suggested nobody really knows what’s going to play out.
“We’ll keep the strategy close to our chest for now and work out what’s gonna unfold as the day goes on,” he said.
“I don’t think anyone knows exactly what they’re going to do, and we certainly don’t know what our opposition are going to do.
“It’s a good part about what’s gonna unfold tomorrow – we don’t know what’s gonna happen, which is great.”
It seems both poignant and generic. There’s no doubt some gamesmanship in those comments, but the sentiment of uncertainty is certainly shared up and down the paddock.
We’ll find out when the race gets underway at 11.15am AEDT.
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