NFC Championship preview: Who has the edge in Lions vs. 49ers?

The Detroit Lions will visit the San Francisco 49ers for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. It’s a compelling matchup featuring a 49ers team that’s made the NFC title game in three straight seasons and a Lions team that hasn’t been this far since the 1991 season. Detroit lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Washington, 41-10, in that NFC Championship Game.

But the No. 3-seeded Lions are back and hungry to prolong their electric playoff run, which has already featured wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 49ers, who are the NFC’s No. 1 seed, beat the Green Bay Packers last week to return to the title game.

It’s expected to be about 70 degrees with sunshine at kickoff in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, which will come at about 3:30 p.m. local time. The game will finish — and an NFC champion will be crowned — under the lights.

Here’s a preview from David Lombardi (who covers the 49ers) and Colton Pouncy (who covers the Lions).

The 49ers will win if …

Lombardi: If they do a reasonable job containing Detroit’s run game. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both big-time threats and the 49ers’ run defense ranks No. 26 in EPA/play. Green Bay targeted that weakness with several crack tosses, including a late one to Aaron Jones that went for a huge gain. The 49ers have emphasized better edge setting and tackling angles from the back end this week, but this late in the season, it’s fair to say that the poor ranking on run defense is simply part of their identity. So the defense must deliver an extraordinary effort in that area Sunday. Perhaps the 49ers can capitalize on the absence of Detroit left guard Jonah Jackson.

Controlling the run is vital because the 49ers want to create pass-rushing leverage against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose efficiency numbers against pressure have ranked much lower than those from a clean pocket. The 49ers saw a lot of success against Goff when he was with the Rams, and it started by cutting off a primary mechanism of protection for him: the run game.

The Lions will win if …

Pouncy: Offensively, the Lions will have to run the ball, control the clock, limit turnovers and capitalize in the red zone. That’s what it’s going to take against a 49ers team with few obvious weaknesses to exploit. The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season, but they’ve also seen the fewest rush attempts of any defense — perhaps a product of teams trailing and abandoning the run. In terms of yards per rush, the 49ers are about average — 14th at 4.1 yards. Additionally, the 49ers rank just 27th in defensive rushing success rate and 28th in defensive rush EPA per snap, per TruMedia. The Lions will need to control the line of scrimmage and need their backs to find success. If that happens, it will limit the bites at the apple for Brock Purdy and a talented 49ers offense against Detroit’s defense.

Defensively, the Lions’ top-two run defense will need to shine. The Lions haven’t allowed an individual back to rush for 70 yards this season. Granted, that comes at the expense of their pass defense. The Lions rank as the fifth-worst defense in success rate against play action, and their secondary has been carved up of late. But if they can make the 49ers somewhat one-dimensional, it could be enough for their offense to pull through. Easier said than done, of course.

Who will be the X-factor?

Pouncy: Left guard Kayode Awosika. The Lions will be without Jackson, their starting left guard who is out with a knee injury. Enter Awosika. It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for Awosika, who’s had some bright spots and some hiccups. He’s given up 21 pressures in just 189 pass-block snaps and faces the tall task of limiting Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave. Less than ideal, but if Awosika can keep Goff upright and help others create lanes for the backs, the Lions can hang with the 49ers offensively. If not, it could be a long day.

Lombardi: It’s hard to pick a single player, especially because the 49ers’ biggest concern — that run defense — will require unit-wide cohesion to address. So I’ll go with Purdy, who’s the point man of the entire attack. Detroit’s biggest weakness is its pass defense, which is ranked No. 16 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and Purdy is key to exploiting that.

The Lions have run a lot of zone defense, which has benefited their run defense (No. 1 DVOA) but left openings in the intermediate parts of the field, which Purdy has targeted exceptionally well this season. This week, the 49ers spoke often about exotic pressure packages that Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has been keen to dial up. It’ll be on Purdy to recognize this action at the line of scrimmage and respond in a manner that consistently keeps the 49ers ahead of the chains. If that happens, the 49ers will be in position to leverage their biggest statistical edge in this game: They have the No. 1 offense and Detroit’s defense is ranked down at No. 13 DVOA.

Both teams had strong efforts following Week 9 byes: San Francisco went 7-2 after the break and the Lions 6-3. What were the key factors in those performances in the season’s second half?

Lombardi: The 49ers offense has motored along with its two MVP finalists, Purdy and Christian McCaffrey. Both of them, with the exception of Purdy’s rough outing against the Baltimore Ravens, have been consistently good and that’s set the table for the rest of the 49ers’ deep pool of weapons to rotate through excellent performances down the stretch.

Deebo Samuel exploded against the Philadelphia Eagles. Brandon Aiyuk led the league in yards per reception. George Kittle remained the adaptable threat unifying the pass and run games that he’s been for years. All of this made the 49ers offense extremely difficult to contain down the stretch.

Surprisingly, the 49ers defense has not been great. In fact, since Week 12, this unit has ranked No. 22 in EPA/play after ranking No. 5 from Weeks 1 to 11. The 49ers lost All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga to a torn ACL late in Week 11 and the secondary has declined since then. Last week, the Packers targeted third cornerback Ambry Thomas — that’s a potential fracture point to watch.

Pouncy: The Lions went through a bit of a rough patch in the second half, despite their shiny record. They narrowly escaped a loss against the Chicago Bears in Detroit, dropped a Thanksgiving game to the Packers at home, avoided a comeback loss to the New Orleans Saints and then lost to the Bears on the road — a 2-2 stretch that raised doubts about this team. But the Lions’ superpower has been their ability to bounce back. They have not lost two games in a row since October 2022. Since that stretch, the Lions are 5-1, with their only loss a controversial ending against the Dallas Cowboys. Their best players — Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, the offensive line, etc. –—have played at their best. They’re a mentally resilient team that Lions coach Dan Campbell described as “scarred to perfection.” They believe they’re built for moments like the one they’ll face Sunday.

Goff has eight games of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl run with the Rams. Purdy has appeared in four postseason games but was knocked out by injury after just four passes in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Both are calm, collected quarterbacks. How can each opponent rattle them?

Pouncy: Historically, the way to rattle Goff has been to hit him with pressure. However, when pressured this season, Goff ranks 17th in EPA per dropback — about middle of the pack, and a far cry from his final season with the Rams when he ranked 32nd of 35 qualified quarterbacks. Even when you manufacture pressure with the blitz, it hasn’t affected Goff’s game too much. He has performed admirably when facing five or more rushers, ranking ninth among qualified QBs with an EPA per dropback of 0.17. Goff did hit a rough patch in the second half with turnovers, which was usually preceded by pressure. But the Lions are hoping this more experienced, seasoned Goff is past those issues and will rise to the occasion. He’s playing his best ball of the season at the perfect time.

Lombardi: Purdy has been very good against pressure (averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, No. 2 in the NFL) and against the blitz (averaging 10 yards per attempt, No. 1 in the NFL), so it’s hard to rattle him in that regard. That’s probably the biggest difference between both quarterbacks’ statistical resumes entering this game, as Goff’s numbers under pressure have not been nearly as efficient as Purdy’s.

That said, we have seen Purdy fall victim to the chain of compounding mistakes this season. It hasn’t happened often and the loss to Baltimore is the only truly glaring example. But a first-drive mistake from Purdy in that game — the interception to Kyle Hamilton — seemed to carry with him for the rest of the rotten outing. Purdy seemed more tentative than usual and the turnovers kept coming. That’s all to say that an early Purdy mistake — or big play from Detroit’s defense — might throw the QB onto the wrong track.

The 49ers have been a contender to play in the Super Bowl since Week 1. The Lions are trying to make the game for the first time in team history. How are both teams handling two very different types of pressures?

Lombardi: The 49ers have made it a point to keep a consistent process intact every week. They’ve striven to avoid over-celebrating wins. They’ve also refused to overreact after losses. This is the steady approach one would expect from a team that’s made the NFC Championship Game in four of the past five seasons.

But the 49ers have not won the ultimate prize in any of their recent tries. And the pressure to win a Super Bowl is certainly palpable within the walls of a franchise that has five Lombardi Trophies.

How are they handling it? Last week’s win over Green Bay is our best indicator so far. When push came to shove at the end of the game, the 49ers responded with their best football. If they respond in the same way Sunday, expect the 49ers to head to Las Vegas. They’ve yet to lose this season when delivering their “A” game. The question is: Can Detroit knock them off it?

Pouncy: The Lions possess the fifth-youngest roster in the NFL. Campbell believes one of the biggest issues facing his team this week is all the outside attention the Lions are receiving.

“I mean, here we are, this is the biggest issue right now,” he said Wednesday. “I mean, most of the time I come in here and there’s what, I don’t know, 20 of you. And now there’s a whole packed room, people I don’t even recognize. And that’s what our players are dealing with. It’s all the extra attention outside of the norm. That’s the issue.”

The concern for Campbell is that his players won’t treat this like any other week, prepare like any other week, and start to think too highly of themselves. A master of consistency, Campbell wants his team to prep just as they have all season because it’s gotten them this far. Why change now?

(Top photos of Jared Goff and Brock Purdy: Nic Antaya and Michael Owens / Getty Images)